New Freighter Forecast Projects Ample Fleet Growth Through 2039

  • Skylar Taylor
  • May 4, 2020
  • Press

Cargo Facts Consulting Publishes Its New 20-Year Forecast Today

NEW YORK (May 4, 2020) – Cargo Facts Consulting (CFC), a leading global consultancy to the air logistics industry and a sister venture of industry newsletter Cargo Facts, today released its latest forecast for the global freighter aircraft fleet, and projected growth in the global freighter aircraft fleet over the next 20 years.

“While the long term outlook for air cargo remains sound, the current crisis will have an effect on the long term average growth rate,” said Managing Director Frederic Horst, “even if we assume an awful 2020 followed by a strong recovery in 2021.”

Over the next twenty years, CFC’s Freighter Forecast projects the addition of 2,322 jet freighters and 401 feeder aircraft to cater for both growth and retirements of older aircraft. Passenger to freighter conversions are expected to account for almost 70% of fleet additions overall.

“Given that the forecast was prepared during the middle of probably the worst crisis ever faced by the global airline industry, we have included a chapter on the short-term outlook for cargo demand, capacity and aircraft supply,” Horst added.

This 15th edition of the report includes an in-depth analysis of recent developments and trends across the feeder, narrowbody, medium and large widebody freighter segments. This is complemented by a forecast of aircraft retirements and fleet additions through to 2039.

The subsequent sections of the report cover long term airfreight demand, CFC’s analysis and forecast for narrowbody, medium and large widebody and feeder (turboprop and regional jet) freighter fleets. This includes an analysis of the impact of changes to key assumptions regarding traffic growth, freighter productivity and the belly to freighter split.

As the world’s only comprehensive and independent freighter forecast, the Cargo Facts Consulting Freighter Forecast has been the fundamental resource for strategic analysis of the current and future freighter fleet since 2006. For more information or to order the newly released edition, please visit


Cargo Facts Consulting (CFC) is the premier aviation consulting firm specializing on the air cargo, express, e-commerce and freighter business. The firm’s extensive experience stretches over forty years, beginning with the deregulation of the U.S. domestic air cargo industry in 1978. Since then, the firm has served a wide variety of U.S. and international clients, including integrated express operators, all-cargo airlines, combination carriers, financial institutions, airport authorities, aircraft manufacturers, and industry suppliers. CFC has an outstanding reputation within the industry and is quoted frequently in the press on matters relating to air freight markets and the application of freighter aircraft. For more information, visit CFC is a unit of Royal Media.

Report author and Cargo Facts Consulting Managing Director Frederic Horst has 19 years of strategy, planning, commercial, operational, and government experience across the air cargo, express, aviation, and transportation infrastructure business. He has held senior positions with Air Bridge Cargo, Air Cargo Germany, DHL Aviation and Cargolux, as well as the State Government in New South Wales.